Coronavirus deaths statistics give key insights for South Africa


Since not everyone can be tested, the number of COVID-19 virus infections per country is becoming an increasingly poor measure of the spread of the corona virus. However, coronavirus deaths are almost always recorded in national statistics and provide important insights into how effectively the government of South Africa fights the COVID-19 virus. That is why we show the number of deaths from corona per million inhabitants and calculate how much days South Africa is behind the Chinese province Hubei (where it all started)

You can use the scroll wheel of your mouse to zoom in on the chart. Each hair line represents one of the 82 countries/regions. By checking the checkbox in the table you can highlight that country in the chart. Please click on the question mark to see read more details.

Chart with deaths per million inhabitants versus number of days after 1 death per million inhabitants milestone for 82 countries/regions


In the chart it can be seen that most hair lines follow the same trajectory. The red line for South Africa can be forecasted by looking at the trajectory for nearby hair lines

Table showing the number of days to 10-fold deaths per capita


Country/Region Days behind Hubei population
[millions]
till now /1M capita 0.1 /1M capita
[date]
0.11 /1M capita
[days]
110 /1M capita
[days]
10100 /1M capita
[days]
South Africa865968312 3/Apr/201937
Hubei, China0594,5127622/Jan/20510
United States53332104,38131511/Mar/209918
United Kingdom506638,48957910/Mar/207813
Italy366033,41555524/Feb/208713
New York, United States491929,7841,53113/Mar/20359
Brazil6521129,31413922/Mar/20101636
France466728,751429 6/Mar/207913
Spain444727,127578 6/Mar/205610
New Jersey, United States548.911,6981,31710/Mar/2011114
Mexico711279,9307828/Mar/201018
Belgium51129,46782111/Mar/207611
Germany54838,54010314/Mar/2071155
Iran37837,7979424/Feb/20912
Canada59377,37320216/Mar/20101225
Massachusetts, United States586.96,84698520/Mar/205612
Netherlands48175,956341 8/Mar/207714
Pennsylvania, United States58135,55543421/Mar/2041016
Michigan, United States5610.05,49155018/Mar/205512
India971,3605,4084.0 6/Apr/2027
Illinois, United States58135,39042519/Mar/206718
Russia771474,6933231/Mar/201323
Quebec, Canada608.44,64155319/Mar/2081014
Turkey60834,5405521/Mar/20613
Peru65324,50614021/Mar/20111734
Sweden52104,39542414/Mar/205819
California, United States57404,17210615/Mar/2091451
Connecticut, United States533.63,9441,10618/Mar/2021010
Ecuador56173,35819214/Mar/2091335
Louisiana, United States514.62,79160014/Mar/204711
Maryland, United States626.02,53241919/Mar/2010718
Florida, United States59212,45111417/Mar/2091047
Ontario, Canada60142,34416520/Mar/2071028
Ohio, United States59122,15518420/Mar/2061031
Indiana, United States566.72,13431716/Mar/2071021
Georgia, United States54112,05319318/Mar/2031029
Switzerland468.61,920224 5/Mar/208917
Texas, United States61291,6755818/Mar/201016
Ireland564.91,65233611/Mar/2012718
Indonesia732681,6136.020/Mar/2020
Pakistan872191,4836.831/Mar/2023
Colorado, United States545.81,44525112/Mar/2091024
Portugal54101,41013718/Mar/203835
Virginia, United States578.51,37516114/Mar/20102227
Romania59191,2666522/Mar/20412
Washington, United States377.61,11814729/Feb/2041638
Poland65381,0642816/Mar/201620
Chile66171,0546123/Mar/201022
Minnesota, United States635.61,05018621/Mar/2091130
Egypt721009599.622/Mar/2017
Philippines671089578.815/Mar/2019
North Carolina, United States64109378926/Mar/20514
Colombia71469162026/Mar/201233
Arizona, United States607.390712521/Mar/2061242
Japan781268987.111/Mar/2034
Missouri, United States576.177612618/Mar/2061442
Mississippi, United States583.073424719/Mar/2061029
Rhode Island, United States611.1718678515
Ukraine71427081725/Mar/201335
Austria558.96687512/Mar/20108
Algeria64436531518/Mar/201327
Bangladesh951686503.9 7/Apr/2024
Alabama, United States624.963012825/Mar/204942
Wisconsin, United States585.859210219/Mar/2061155
Denmark525.85749914/Mar/2059
Argentina70455391224/Mar/201348
Iowa, United States623.253517025/Mar/2041432
Hungary589.85265415/Mar/201018
Saudi Arabia70345031528/Mar/20945
Dominican Republic60105024819/Mar/20812
South Carolina, United States585.14949616/Mar/20915
District of Columbia, United States550.7466660816
Kentucky, United States584.54319616/Mar/20913
Nevada, United States563.141713516/Mar/207941
Delaware, United States591.0366376623
Tennessee, United States636.83645320/Mar/20108
New Mexico, United States642.135617025/Mar/2061230
Panama564.23368111/Mar/201213
Oklahoma, United States584.03348419/Mar/20610
Czechia61113203024/Mar/20412
Finland605.53205821/Mar/20616
Bolivia71113132830/Mar/20832

Chart with deaths per million elderly inhabitants age>65 years versus number of days after milestone of 10 deaths per million residents for 82 countries/regions


Some countries have a high percentage of elderly (in our definitions: perons with an age of 65 or higher) and therfore will have a much higher mortality rate for the corona virus. To corect for this effect we have created a chart and a table with the same structue as above, but now only the part of the population with an age above 65 is included.

Table which shows the number of days to tenfold deaths per capita rate for persons with an age > 65 years


Country/Region Days behind Hubei 65+ population
[millions]
till now /1M 65+ capita 1.0 /1M 65+ capita
[date]
1.010 /1M 65+ capita
[days]
10100 /1M 65+ capita
[days]
1001000 /1M 65+ capita
[days]
South Africa793.168321931/Mar/201535
Hubei, China06.14,51274522/Jan/20510
United States5552104,3811,99214/Mar/208925
United Kingdom521238,4893,14914/Mar/205915
Italy381433,4152,43827/Feb/207919
New York, United States503.129,7849,56914/Mar/20369
Brazil641929,3141,55522/Mar/2091634
France491328,7512,140 8/Mar/2081016
Spain469.127,1272,983 7/Mar/206712
New Jersey, United States561.411,6988,23115/Mar/20897
Mexico699.19,9301,08627/Mar/2091737
Belgium532.29,4674,37211/Mar/209613
Germany58188,54047917/Mar/20812
Iran345.27,7971,51423/Feb/2071337
Canada626.27,3731,18518/Mar/20111340
Massachusetts, United States591.26,8465,79522/Mar/204715
Netherlands503.35,9561,77910/Mar/207823
Pennsylvania, United States612.35,5552,41122/Mar/2061022
Michigan, United States571.75,4913,23421/Mar/203615
India90845,40864 4/Apr/2022
Illinois, United States591.95,3902,83619/Mar/207823
Russia80224,693218 1/Apr/201527
Quebec, Canada601.64,6412,94121/Mar/2061219
Turkey597.14,54064421/Mar/20512
Peru642.64,5061,73220/Mar/20111631
Sweden552.14,3952,11015/Mar/2071023
California, United States585.54,17275416/Mar/20916
Connecticut, United States550.63,9446,50718/Mar/204914
Ecuador551.23,3582,68914/Mar/2081229
Louisiana, United States520.72,7914,00214/Mar/205715
Maryland, United States630.92,5322,79219/Mar/2011722
Florida, United States614.52,45154318/Mar/201015
Ontario, Canada632.42,34497721/Mar/20912
Ohio, United States612.02,1551,08420/Mar/2081247
Indiana, United States571.12,1341,98117/Mar/2071128
Georgia, United States551.52,0531,38118/Mar/2041141
Switzerland501.61,9201,201 8/Mar/209931
Texas, United States633.81,67544419/Mar/201117
Ireland570.71,6522,42111/Mar/2013720
Indonesia66161,61310318/Mar/201558
Pakistan789.41,48315727/Mar/201836
Colorado, United States580.81,4451,79212/Mar/2013829
Portugal562.31,41062519/Mar/20411
Virginia, United States621.41,3751,00716/Mar/20131943
Romania613.61,26635623/Mar/20518
Washington, United States391.21,118918 2/Mar/20419
Poland676.71,06415822/Mar/201230
Chile672.01,05452625/Mar/20925
Minnesota, United States660.91,0501,16421/Mar/20121539
Egypt665.295918318/Mar/201538
Philippines615.695717214/Mar/201432
North Carolina, United States661.793755826/Mar/20715
Colombia703.991623425/Mar/201230
Arizona, United States651.390769222/Mar/201015
Japan89358982621/Mar/2035
Missouri, United States621.077674420/Mar/20913
Mississippi, United States590.57341,54119/Mar/2071138
Rhode Island, United States610.27183,987818
Ukraine746.970810328/Mar/201350
Austria561.766839516/Mar/20712
Algeria612.765323914/Mar/201414
Bangladesh838.765075 5/Apr/2014
Alabama, United States620.863075625/Mar/20413
Wisconsin, United States591.059259819/Mar/20713
Denmark541.257449815/Mar/20612
Argentina715.053910824/Mar/201450
Iowa, United States630.553599725/Mar/20517
Hungary651.952628120/Mar/201218
Saudi Arabia651.150344425/Mar/20721
Dominican Republic580.750268417/Mar/20811
South Carolina, United States600.949453316/Mar/201118
District of Columbia, United States550.084665,502818
Kentucky, United States610.743160316/Mar/201216
Nevada, United States580.541784616/Mar/20913
Delaware, United States610.23661,97826/Mar/2021424
Tennessee, United States641.136433322/Mar/20914
New Mexico, United States640.435694325/Mar/20617
Panama560.333699711/Mar/201211
Oklahoma, United States590.633452819/Mar/20712
Czechia632.132015424/Mar/20623
Finland631.232026725/Mar/20522
Bolivia670.831338529/Mar/20531